AMC 10 · 2002 · #24

Grade 7 probability
probability-basiccombinations-basicsystematic-enumeration casework ↑ Prerequisites: probability-basic
📏 Long solution 💡 3 insights
Problem
Tina picks two different numbers from {1,2,3,4,5} and adds them, getting a sum T. Separately, Sergio picks one number S from {1,2,…,10}. Every choice is equally likely. Find the probability that Sergio's number beats Tina's sum, i.e. that S > T.

Pick an answer.

(A)
$\ 2/5$
(B)
$\ 9/20$
(C)
$\ 1/2$
(D)
$\ 11/20$
(E)
$\ 24/25$

AMC 10 2002 problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA AMC). Reproduced for educational use.

How to solve
Strategy Make a Systematic List

The two picks are independent, so the honest way to get the probability is to count outcomes: (number of winning (T,S) situations) ÷ (total situations). Because Tina's sum only takes a handful of values (3 through 9), a systematic list organised by her sum (Tool #2) captures every case without missing or double-counting. For each fixed sum we split off a clean subproblem (Tool #7): how many pairs make that sum, and how many of Sergio's numbers exceed it. Grouping by the value T (Tool #16 — pick the most useful thing to organise around) turns a messy 10 × 10 grid into seven tidy rows we can add up.

1STEP 1

Count the total equally-likely outcomes

Tina has C(5, 2)=10 pairs, Sergio has 10 numbers, and the picks are independent — so 100 equally likely outcomes in all.

C(5, 2) × 10 = 10 × 10 = 100
2STEP 2

List Tina's pairs by their sum

Sort the 10 pairs by their sum: sums 3 through 9 come from 1,1,2,2,2,1,1 pairs, and those add back to 10.

T: 3,4,5,6,7,8,9 → pairs 1,1,2,2,2,1,1 (total 10)
3STEP 3

Count Sergio's winning numbers per sum

With T fixed, Sergio wins with 10 minus T numbers; times each pair count, the rows give 7, 6, 10, 8, 6, 2, 1.

#{S > T} = 10 - T
4STEP 4

Add the winning outcomes

Add the rows: 7+6+10+8+6+2+1 = 40, so 40 of the 100 outcomes are wins for Sergio.

7+6+10+8+6+2+1 = 40
5STEP 5

Form the probability

Divide favorable by total: 40/100 = 2/5, which is choice (A).

P(S > T) = 40/100 = 2/5 → (A)
Answer
2/5
The answer 2/5 = 0.4 should sit a little below one-half, and that makes sense: Tina's smallest possible sum is 3, so Sergio (who can be as low as 1) is often already behind before he even ties. A quick bound check: Tina's sums average (3+9)/2 = 6, and against a sum of 6 Sergio wins with 4 of his 10 numbers, i.e. probability 0.4 — consistent with 2/5. Also 40/100 reduces cleanly to 2/5, one of the listed choices, and the pair counts summed to 10 = C(5, 2), confirming no case was missed or double-counted.
💡Key takeaway

Group Tina's pairs by their sum; for each sum, count how many of Sergio's numbers are bigger, add those up, and divide by all 100 outcomes.

  • Count the total equally-likely outcomes
  • List Tina's pairs by their sum
  • Count Sergio's winning numbers per sum
  • Add the winning outcomes
  • Form the probability