AMC 10 · 2003 · #22

Grade 7 probability
combinations-basiclattice-pathsprobability-basic invariant-monovariantidentify-subproblems ↑ Prerequisites: combinations-basic
📏 Long solution 💡 3 insights
Problem
Two objects step at the same time, one step per turn, each step of length 1. Object A starts at (0,0) and each of its steps goes right or up, each with probability 1/2. Object B starts at (5,7) and each of its steps goes left or down, each with probability 1/2. Find the probability that the two objects are ever at the same point at the same time, then report which of the listed values it is closest to.

Pick an answer.

(A)
0.10
(B)
0.15
(C)
0.20
(D)
0.25
(E)
0.30
How to solve
Strategy Identify Subproblems

The event 'they meet' looks like it stretches over an unbounded number of turns, so the first job is to shrink it. Tool #4 (Introduce a Variable) supplies the quantity s=x+y, which rises by exactly 1 for A and falls by exactly 1 for B every turn; that single variable proves the meeting can only happen on turn 6 and nowhere else. Tool #7 (Identify Subproblems) then splits that one turn into a handful of disjoint cases, one per possible meeting point, so the probability becomes a sum instead of a tangle. Tool #1 (Draw a Diagram) locates those points on the line x+y=6 and shows which of them B can actually reach. Tool #2 (Make a Systematic List) counts the six-step routes to each point using the addition rule, with the row total 64=2⁶ as a built-in audit. Tool #15 (Organize Information in More Ways) reappears in the review, where re-reading a pair of meeting routes as one long route recovers the same count in a single stroke. Tool #3 (Eliminate Possibilities) does the last, cheap job of matching the exact fraction against five decimals.

1STEP 1

Turn x+y into a clock

The coordinate sum acts as a clock: it rises for one object and falls for the other, forcing a meeting at turn 6.

s(x,y)=x+y; after t turns s_A=t and s_B=12-t; t=12-t⇔ t=6
2STEP 2

List the reachable rung-6 points

Matching coordinates at that turn leaves exactly six possible meeting points.

A at (i,6-i), B at (5-j,1+j); equal ⇔ j=5-i with 0 ≤ i ≤ 5. Meeting points: (0,6),(1,5),(2,4),(3,3),(4,2),(5,1)
3STEP 3

Count six-step routes

Six-step routes are counted by the binomial row 1,6,15,20,15,6,1, which sums to 64.

c₀,c₁,…,c₆=1,6,15,20,15,6,1 and Σ_k=0⁶c_k=64=2⁶
4STEP 4

Convert counts into equally likely outcomes

Independence makes every route pair equally likely, giving 4096 outcomes.

P(meet)=(#{pairs of routes ending at the same point})/(2⁶ · 2⁶)=#/4096
5STEP 5

Add the six disjoint cases

Adding the six disjoint cases gives 792 favourable pairs, or 99/512.

P=(Σ_i=0⁵c_i c₅-i)/4096=(6+90+300+300+90+6)/4096=792/4096=99/512
6STEP 6

Round and choose

That is about 0.1934, closest to 0.20, choice (C).

99/512=0.193359375; |0.193359-0.20|=0.00664, smaller than every other gap →(C)
Answer
0.20
Three independent checks. First, the six case counts 6,90,300,300,90,6 read the same forwards and backwards; that is expected, because replacing i by 5-i swaps the two factors c_i and c₅-i without changing their product, so the palindrome is a structural consequence rather than a coincidence. Second, a size estimate: if B had started at (6,6) instead, the meeting condition at turn 6 would be i=j, giving Σ_i c_i²=924 favorable pairs and probability 924/4096≈ 0.226. Starting at (5,7) shifts the two distributions one step out of alignment, which should lower the chance a little — and 0.193 is indeed a little lower, so the magnitude is right. Third, the accounting of turns: after turn 7, A lies on x+y=7 while B lies on x+y=5, and that gap only grows, so nothing was lost by looking only at turn 6. The final comparison is also not close: the runner-up choice 0.15 misses by more than six times the winning gap, so rounding error in the decimal expansion cannot change the answer, which is (C).
💡Key takeaway

Add the two coordinates to make a clock: it tells you the one turn on which the walkers can possibly be level, and after that the problem is just counting six-letter words.

  • Turn x+y into a clock
  • List the reachable rung-6 points
  • Count six-step routes
  • Convert counts into equally likely outcomes
  • Add the six disjoint cases
  • Round and choose