AMC 10 · 2005 · #11

Grade 7 probability
probability-basiccombinations-basic caseworkcomplementary-counting ↑ Prerequisites: probability-basiccombinations-basic
📏 Medium solution 💡 2 insights
Problem
An envelope holds eight bills: two each of 1, 5, 10 and 20 dollars. Two are drawn at once. Find the probability that they add to 20 dollars or more.

Pick an answer.

(A)
${{{\frac{1}{4}}}}$
(B)
${{{\frac{2}{5}}}}$
(C)
${{{\frac{3}{7}}}}$
(D)
${{{\frac{1}{2}}}}$
(E)
${{{\frac{2}{3}}}}$
How to solve
Strategy Identify Subproblems

Every outcome (a pair of bills) is equally likely, so the probability is just (number of good pairs) / (total pairs). Tool #7 (Identify Subproblems) splits the good pairs into two clean cases: pairs that include a 20, and pairs that do not. The first case is easiest counted with Tool #16 (Count the Complement) — count all pairs, then remove the pairs with no20. The second case is a short, finite check handled by Tool #2 (Make a Systematic List): among the remaining bills, which pairs still reach $20?

1STEP 1

Count all possible pairs

There are 28 equally likely pairs.

C(8, 2)=(8 · 7)/2=28
2STEP 2

Any pair with a $20 already wins

Any pair with the biggest bill already succeeds, giving 13.

28-C(6, 2)=28-15=13
3STEP 3

Check the pairs with no $20

Among the rest only the two tens reach the target, adding 1.

10+10=20 ✓; 10+5, 10+1, 5+5, 5+1, 1+1 < 20
4STEP 4

Add the cases and form the probability

Adding and reducing gives 1/2, choice (D).

P=(13+1)/28=14/28=1/2 → (D)
Answer
{{{1/2}}}
The answer 1/2 is believable: a 20appearsinahealthyshareofpairsandguaranteesawin,soafiftyfiftychanceisintherightballparknottiny,notnearcertain.Acrosscheckbythecomplementconfirmsit.Thepairsthatfallshortof20 appears in a healthy share of pairs and guarantees a win, so a fifty-fifty chance is in the right ballpark — not tiny, not near-certain. A cross-check by the complement confirms it. The pairs that fall short of20 are exactly the pairs with no $20 except the two-tens pair: 15-1=14 failing pairs, matching the 28-14=14 successes. Since successes and failures are both 14, the probability is 1/2 either way. The trap choice (C) 3/7=12/28 comes from forgetting to count the 10+10 pair (or a twenty-with-twenty pair); losing two good pairs would drop 14 to 12.
💡Key takeaway

When every pick is equally likely, count the winning pairs over all pairs — and split the count into easy cases, like 'has a twenty' versus 'no twenty', so nothing gets missed or double-counted.

  • Count all possible pairs
  • Any pair with a $20 already wins
  • Check the pairs with no $20
  • Add the cases and form the probability