AMC 10 · 2016 · #12

Grade 7 probability
probability-basiccomplementary-countingparity complementary-counting ↑ Prerequisites: probability-basic
📏 Medium solution 💡 2 insights
Problem
Pick two different numbers at random from {1, 2, 3, 4, 5} and multiply them. Find the probability that the product is even.

Pick an answer.

(A)
0.2
(B)
0.4
(C)
0.5
(D)
0.7
(E)
0.8

AMC 10 2016 problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA AMC). Reproduced for educational use.

How to solve
Strategy Change Focus / Count the Complement

The product is even when at least one factor is even, and "at least one" is the classic signal for Tool #16 (Count the Complement): instead of chasing the many ways to get an even product, flip the question and count the one tidy way it fails. A product is odd only when both factors are odd, which is a single, small case. Tool #2 (Make a Systematic List) lets us count the total pairs and the all-odd pairs without missing any. Tool #3 (Eliminate Possibilities) is the final check: only one choice can match the fraction we compute, so the rest are ruled out.

1STEP 1

Count all the equally likely pairs

Order doesn't matter, so the number of equally likely pairs is C(5, 2) = 10.

C(5, 2) = (5 × 4)/2 = 10
2STEP 2

Flip to the easier opposite event

Instead of the even case, count the opposite: a product is odd only when both chosen numbers are odd.

product odd ⇔ both factors odd
3STEP 3

Count the all-odd pairs

Only 1, 3, 5 can make an odd product, giving C(3, 2) = 3 all-odd pairs, so P(odd) = 3/10.

C(3, 2) = 3, P(odd) = 3/10
4STEP 4

Subtract from one to get the answer

Even and odd exhaust all cases, so P(even) = 1 - 3/10 = 7/10 = 0.7, which is choice (D).

P(even) = 1 - 3/10 = 7/10 = 0.7 = (D)
Answer
0.7
The answer 0.7 should be more than half, and it makes sense that it is: most pairs include at least one of the two even numbers, so even products dominate. A direct count agrees — of the 10 pairs, the 7 even-product pairs are {1,2}, {1,4}, {2,3}, {2,4}, {2,5}, {3,4}, {4,5}, matching 7/10. The eliminated choices fail a quick sanity check: 0.5 would mean even and odd are equally likely, but evens clearly win since just one even factor is enough.
💡Key takeaway

When a question asks for "at least one," count the single way it fails instead and subtract from one.

  • Count all the equally likely pairs
  • Flip to the easier opposite event
  • Count the all-odd pairs
  • Subtract from one to get the answer