AMC 10 · 2015 · #17

Grade 7 probability
probability-basiccomplementary-countinglucas-numbersrecursive-sequence casework ↑ Prerequisites: probability-basic
📏 Long solution 💡 4 insights
Problem
Each person around a circle flips a coin and neighbours must not both stand. Find the probability.

Pick an answer.

(A)
$\dfrac{47}{256}$
(B)
$\dfrac{3}{16}$
(C)
$\dfrac{49}{256}$
(D)
$\dfrac{25}{128}$
(E)
$\dfrac{51}{256}$
How to solve
Strategy Identify Subproblems

Because every coin is fair and independent, all 2⁸ = 256 stand/sit patterns are equally likely, so the probability is just (number of safe patterns)/256. The phrase "no two adjacent standing" is hard to count all at once, so Tool #7 (Identify Subproblems) splits the work by how many people stand: 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 (five or more cannot fit without touching). The easy counts come from Tool #2 (Make a Systematic List), and the one stubborn case — exactly 3 standing — bends to Tool #16 (Count the Complement): count all triples, then throw out the ones that put two standers side by side.

1STEP 1

Set up probability as a fraction

All 256 outcomes are equally likely.

P(safe) = (# safe patterns)/2⁸ = (# safe patterns)/256
2STEP 2

Split by how many stand

Splitting by how many stand gives five cases.

# safe = N₀ + N₁ + N₂ + N₃ + N₄
3STEP 3

Count 0, 1, and 2 standers

The small cases count directly.

N₀ = 1, N₁ = 8, N₂ = C(8, 2) - 8 = 28 - 8 = 20
4STEP 4

Count 3 standers by complement

The next uses a complement.

N₃ = C(8, 3) - 8 - (8 × 4) = 56 - 8 - 32 = 16
5STEP 5

Count 4 standers

The largest case allows only two patterns.

N₄ = 2 (the two alternating patterns)
6STEP 6

Add up and divide

Adding and dividing gives 47/256, choice (A).

P = (1+8+20+16+2)/256 = 47/256 → (A)
Answer
47/256
The probability 47/256≈ 0.18 is sensible: standing is a coin flip, but the no-touching rule rules out most patterns, so a value well under one-half is expected. The counts also pass a sanity check — the safe-pattern totals 1,8,20,16,2 are the Lucas number L₈ = 47, the known count of ways to choose a non-adjacent subset of a circle of 8. The numerator 47 is odd, so the fraction cannot reduce to a denominator like 16 or 128, which quietly rules out (B) 3/16 and (D) 25/128; the nearby (C) 49/256 and (E) 51/256 would require miscounting case 3 or 4.
💡Key takeaway

Every coin flip is equally likely, so count the safe seatings by how many people stand (0, 1, 2, 3, 4), add them to 47, and divide by 256.

  • Set up probability as a fraction
  • Split by how many stand
  • Count 0, 1, and 2 standers
  • Count 3 standers by complement
  • Count 4 standers
  • Add up and divide