AMC 10 · 2017 · #22

Grade 10 probability
probability-basicsystems-of-equationsconditional-probability symmetry-argumentconvert-to-algebra ↑ Prerequisites: probability-basicsystems-of-equations
📏 Long solution 💡 4 insights
Problem
A token wanders at random until it lands on a surrounding boundary. Report the reduced probability's parts.

Pick an answer.

(A)
4
(B)
5
(C)
7
(D)
15
(E)
39
How to solve
Strategy Introduce a Variable

The walk has no time limit, so there is nothing finite to list. The fix is to name the answer from each starting spot as an unknown. Because every move averages over 8 neighbours, each unknown equals the average of the neighbouring unknowns, which turns an endless process into a small system of equations. The square's symmetry first shrinks 9 interior spots to 3 families, so the system has only 3 unknowns.

1STEP 1

Draw the board

The board has an inside and a boundary.

inside = {(x,y) : |x| ≤ 1, |y| ≤ 1}, square = {(x,y) : max(|x|,|y|) = 2}
2STEP 2

Fold nine spots into three

Symmetry folds nine spots into three.

{(0,0)}, {(1,0),(-1,0),(0,1),(0,-1)}, {(1,1),(1,-1),(-1,1),(-1,-1)}
3STEP 3

Name one unknown per family

Each kind gets one unknown.

P(corner from X) = 1/8Σ_Y next to X P(corner from Y)
4STEP 4

Equation at the origin

The centre gives the first equation.

a = 4/8b + 4/8c = 1/2b + 1/2c
5STEP 5

Equation at an axis point

An axis spot gives the second.

b = 3/8 · 0 + 2/8c + 2/8b + 1/8a = 1/4c + 1/4b + 1/8a
6STEP 6

Equation at a diagonal point

A diagonal spot gives the third.

c = 1/8 · 1 + 4/8 · 0 + 2/8b + 1/8a = 1/8 + 1/4b + 1/8a
7STEP 7

Solve the three equations

Solving the system gives 4/35.

b = 5/11c, a = 8/11c, 35/44c = 1/8 → c = 11/70, b = 1/14, a = 4/35
8STEP 8

Read off m + n

Its parts add to 39, choice (A).

m/n = 4/35, gcd(4,35) = 1, m + n = 4 + 35 = 39
Answer
39
Put the three values back into the equations they came from. Origin: 1/2·1/14 + 1/2·11/70 = 5/140 + 11/140 = 16/140 = 4/35. Axis: 1/4·11/70 + 1/4·1/14 + 1/8·4/35 = 11/280 + 5/280 + 4/280 = 20/280 = 1/14. Diagonal: 1/8 + 1/4·1/14 + 1/8·4/35 = 35/280 + 5/280 + 4/280 = 44/280 = 11/70. All three hold. The sizes also make sense: every value lies between 0 and 1, and the order c > a > b matches the picture, since only a diagonal spot touches a corner while an axis spot loses on three of its eight steps. Finally, compare with a lazy guess: 4 of the 16 square points are corners, so guessing uniformly would give 1/4 = 0.25, while the true value 4/35 ≈ 0.114 is well below it. That is the right direction, because the 12 side points form a much wider target than the 4 corners.
💡Key takeaway

When a walk has no time limit, name the answer from each spot as an unknown: every spot is worth the average of its neighbours, and symmetry shrinks nine unknowns down to three easy equations.

  • Draw the board
  • Fold nine spots into three
  • Name one unknown per family
  • Equation at the origin
  • Equation at an axis point
  • Equation at a diagonal point
  • Solve the three equations
  • Read off m + n