AMC 8 · 2005 · #16
Grade 4 countingPick an answer.
AMC 8 2005 problem © Mathematical Association of America (MAA AMC). Reproduced for educational use.
"Be certain" is the tell for Tool #14 (Extreme Principle): the answer is whatever the worst-case sequence forces, not what a lucky pull might give. The worst case is the one that postpones reaching 5 of any one color as long as possible — spread the pulls as evenly across the three colors as we can. Tool #9 (Solve an Easier Problem) makes the idea concrete by warming up on a smaller version (say, 3 of one color from 2 colors) so the pattern is visible. Tool #2 (Systematic List) records the worst-case tally color by color so the count is hard to miscount.
Warm up small: 2 colors, want 3 of one. Worst luck gives 2 of each, then the next pull forces a third — pattern (target−1)×(colors)+1.
Grade 3 sees multiplication as "equal groups." Here the groups are colors, and each group can hold up to target - 1 socks before the rule kicks in.
3.OA.A.1Solve An Easier Related ProblemNow the real case: 3 colors, target 5. Worst luck is 4 of each color before any hits 5 — tally red 4, white 4, blue 4 = 12.
3 groups of 4 is the Grade 3 "equal groups" picture: 3 × 4 = 12. None of the three colors has reached 5 yet.
3.OA.A.1Make A Systematic ListExtreme principle: after 12 socks (4 each), the next pull is red, white, or blue and lifts that color to 5 — so 13 guarantees it, 12 can't.
Worst case plus one is the Grade 3 two-step move: compute the unluckiest total, then add 1 to push it past the threshold.
3.OA.D.8Evaluate Finite DifferencesCheck nothing smaller works: with only 12 pulled, the split 4+4+4 leaves every color at 4 — none at 5 — so 12 is no guarantee.
Showing a single bad scenario is enough to knock out a candidate answer — the Grade 4 "check whether the answer makes sense" habit, used in reverse.
4.OA.A.3Evaluate Finite Differences"Be certain" problems are solved by the unluckiest run. Spread your pulls as evenly as possible across the categories, then add one more — that is the guarantee.